DEAL OR NO DEAL
With Brexit due in little over a week, British Prime Minister Theresa May came to Brussels seeking a three-month delay so she could salvage her twice-rejected EU divorce deal. Instead, the 27 other EU leaders offered a two-stage "flextension." If U.K. lawmakers approve the divorce deal agreed between Britain and the bloc, Britain will leave on May 22.
If they defeat it, Britain has until April 12 to tell the EU what it plans to do next: leave without a deal, risking economic chaos, or seek a long delay to Brexit and chart a course toward a softer exit or even remaining in the bloc.
EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
The key factor in the EU's decision is the election for the European Parliament due to be held May 23-26.
The bloc is adamant Britain must not take part if it is leaving — hence the May 22 cutoff date.
April 12 is the deadline for candidates to be enrolled, so the U.K. must decide before then if it is putting its departure on longer hold, in which case it would participate in the elections.
PARLIAMENTARY BATTLE
The battle now shifts back to the British Parliament, which is split down the middle between supporters and opponents of Brexit.
Both sides voted in large numbers, twice, to reject May's Brexit deal. But May plans to try again next week.
She hopes to persuade reluctant pro-Brexit lawmakers that backing her deal is their only hope of actually leaving the bloc, and to convince pro-EU legislators that they must choose between her deal and a chaotic no-deal Brexit.
May's plan was complicated last week when the speaker of the House of Commons said the prime minister couldn't seek a third vote on her twice-defeated divorce deal unless it was substantially altered.
May is likely to argue that the EU's extension means circumstances have changed and that ruling should no longer apply.
If Parliament approves her Brexit deal, May plans to use the delay until May 22 to pass the legislation necessary for Britain's orderly departure from the EU.
OTHER OPTIONS
There is little evidence yet that lawmakers' opinion has shifted strongly in favor of May's deal.
Anti-EU supporters of "hard Brexit" still believe that rejecting it can lead to a no-deal departure from the bloc as soon as April 12.
